Do frailty and comorbidity indices improve risk prediction of 28-day ED reattendance? Reanalysis of an ED discharge nomogram for older people

Background: In older people, quantification of risk of reattendance after emergency department (ED) discharge is important to provide adequate post ED discharge care in the community to appropriately targeted patients at risk. Methods: We reanalysed data from a prospective observational study, previously used for derivation of a nomogram for stratifying people aged 65 and older at risk for ED reattendance. We investigated the potential effect of comorbidity load and frailty by adding the Charlson or Elixhauser comorbidity index and a ten-item frailty measure from our data to develop four new nomograms. Model I and model F built on the original nomogram by including the frailty measure with and without the addition of the Charlson comorbidity score; model E adapted for efficiency in the time-constrained environment of ED was without the frailty measure; and model P manually constructed in a purposeful stepwise manner and including only statistically significant variables. Areas under the ROC curve of models were compared. The primary outcome was any ED reattendance within 28 days of discharge. Results: Data from 1357 patients were used. The point estimate of the respective areas under ROC were 0.63 (O), 0.63 (I), 0.68 (E), 0.71 (P) and 0.63 (F). Conclusion: Addition of a comorbidity index to our previous model improves stratifying elderly at risk of ED reattendance. Our frailty measure did not demonstrate any additional predictive benefit

Paying clinicians to join clinical trials : a review of guidelines and interview study of trialists

Background: The motivations of clinicians to participate in clinical trials have been little studied. This project explored the potential role of payment for participation in publicly funded clinical trials in the UK. The aims were to review relevant guidelines and to collate and analyse views of clinical trialists on the role of payments and other factors that motivated clinicians to join clinical trials. Methods: Review of guidelines governing payments to clinicians for recruitment to trials. Semistructured interviews with a range of NHS clinical trial leaders, analysed using qualititative methods. Results: While UK guidelines had little to say specifically on payments linked to recruitment, all payments have become highly regulated and increasingly transparent. Interview participants believed that expenses arising from research should be covered. Payments in excess of expenses were seen as likely to increase participation but with the risk of reducing quality. Motivations such as interest in the topic, the scope for patients to benefit and intellectual curiosity were considered more important. Barriers to involvement included bureaucracy and lack of time. Discussion: Limited scope exists for paying clinicians over-and-above the cost of their time to be involved in research. Most trialists favour full payment of all expenses related to research. Conclusion: Payment of clinicians beyond expenses is perceived to be a less important motivating factor than researching important, salient questions, and facilitating research by reducing bureaucracy and delay

Initiation of Psychotropic Medication after Partner Bereavement: A Matched Cohort Study

Background Recent changes to diagnostic criteria for depression in DSM-5 remove the bereavement exclusion, allowing earlier diagnosis following bereavement. Evaluation of the potential effect of this change requires an understanding of existing psychotropic medication prescribing by non-specialists after bereavement. Aims To describe initiation of psychotropic medication in the first year after partner bereavement. Methods In a UK primary care database, we identified 21,122 individuals aged 60 and over with partner bereavement and no psychotropic drug use in the previous year. Prescribing (anxiolytic/hypnotic, antidepressant, antipsychotic) after bereavement was compared to age, sex and practice matched controls. Results The risks of receiving a new psychotropic prescription within two and twelve months of bereavement were 9.5% (95% CI 9.1 to 9.9%) and 17.9% (17.3 to 18.4%) respectively; an excess risk of initiation in the first year of 12.4% compared to non-bereaved controls. Anxiolytic/hypnotic and antidepressant initiation rates were highest in the first two months. In this period, the hazard ratio for initiation of anxiolytics/hypnotics was 16.7 (95% CI 14.7 to 18.9) and for antidepressants was 5.6 (4.7 to 6.7) compared to non-bereaved controls. 13.3% of those started on anxiolytics/hypnotics within two months continued to receive this drug class at one year. The marked variation in background family practice prescribing of anxiolytics/hypnotics was the strongest determinant of their initiation in the first two months after bereavement. Conclusion Almost one in five older people received a new psychotropic drug prescription in the year after bereavement. The early increase and trend in antidepressant use after bereavement suggests some clinicians did not adhere to the bereavement exclusion, with implications for its recent removal in DSM-5. Family practice variation in use of anxiolytics/hypnotics suggests uncertainty over their role in bereavement with the potential for inappropriate long term use

A markov model to evaluate hospital readmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The analysis of non-fatal recurring events is frequently found in studies on chronic-degenerative diseases. The aim of this paper is to estimate the probability of readmission of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) or with Respiratory Failure (RF).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Repeated hospital admissions of a patient are considered as a Markov Chain. The transitions between the states are estimated using the Nelson-Aalen estimator. The analysis was carried out using the Puglia Region hospital patient discharge database for the years 1998–2005. Patients were selected on the basis of first admission between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2005 with ICD-9-CM code of COPD or RF as principal and/or secondary diagnosis. For those selected two possible transitions were considered in the case they had the second and third admission with an ICD-9-CM code of COPD or RF as principal diagnosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The probability of readmission is increased in patients with a diagnosis of RF (OR = 1.618 in the first transition and 1.279 in the second) and also in those with a diagnosis of COPD or RF as the principal diagnosis at first admission (OR = 1.615 in the first transition and 1.193 in the second). The clinical gravity and the ward from which they were discharged did not significantly influence the probability of readmission.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The time to readmission depends on the gravity of the pathology at onset. In patients with a grave clinical picture, either COPD or Respiratory Failure, when treated and controlled after the first admission, they become minor problems and they are indicated among secondary diagnoses in any further admission.</p

A review for clinical outcomes research: hypothesis generation, data strategy, and hypothesis-driven statistical analysis

In recent years, more and more large, population-level databases have become available for clinical research. The size and complexity of these databases often present a methodological challenge for investigators. We propose that a “protocol” may facilitate the research process using these databases. In addition, much like the structured History and Physical (H&P) helps the audience appreciate the details of a patient case more systematically, a formal outcomes research protocol can also help in the systematic evaluation of an outcomes research manuscript

Changes in and predictors of length of stay in hospital after surgery for breast cancer between 1997/98 and 2004/05 in two regions of England: a population-based

BACKGROUND Decreases in length of stay (LOS) in hospital after breast cancer surgery can be partly attributed to the change to less radical surgery, but many other factors are operating at the patient, surgeon and hospital levels. This study aimed to describe the changes in and predictors of length of stay (LOS) in hospital after surgery for breast cancer between 1997/98 and 2004/05 in two regions of England. METHODS Cases of female invasive breast cancer diagnosed in two English cancer registry regions were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data for the period 1st April 1997 to 31st March 2005. A subset of records where women underwent mastectomy or breast conserving surgery (BCS) was extracted (n = 44,877). Variations in LOS over the study period were investigated. A multilevel model with patients clustered within surgical teams and NHS Trusts was used to examine associations between LOS and a range of factors. RESULTS Over the study period the proportion of women having a mastectomy reduced from 58% to 52%. The proportion varied from 14% to 80% according to NHS Trust. LOS decreased by 21% from 1997/98 to 2004/05 (LOSratio = 0.79, 95%CI 0.77-0.80). BCS was associated with 33% shorter hospital stays compared to mastectomy (LOSratio = 0.67, 95%CI 0.66-0.68). Older age, advanced disease, presence of comorbidities, lymph node excision and reconstructive surgery were associated with increased LOS. Significant variation remained amongst Trusts and surgical teams. CONCLUSION The number of days spent in hospital after breast cancer surgery has continued to decline for several decades. The change from mastectomy to BCS accounts for only 9% of the overall decrease in LOS. Other explanations include the adoption of new techniques and practices, such as sentinel lymph node biopsy and early discharge. This study has identified wide variation in practice with substantial cost implications for the NHS. Further work is required to explain this variation

Characteristics and outcome of patients with newly diagnosed advanced or metastatic lung cancer admitted to intensive care units (ICUs)

BACKGROUND: Although patients with advanced or metastatic lung cancer have poor prognosis, admission to the ICU for management of life-threatening complications has increased over the years. Patients with newly diagnosed lung cancer appear as good candidates for ICU admission, but more robust information to assist decisions is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognosis of newly diagnosed unresectable lung cancer patients. METHODS: A retrospective multicentric study analyzed the outcome of patients admitted to the ICU with a newly diagnosed lung cancer (diagnosis within the month) between 2010 and 2013. RESULTS: Out of the 100 patients, 30 had small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and 70 had non-small cell lung cancer. (Thirty patients had already been treated with oncologic treatments.) Mechanical ventilation (MV) was performed for 81 patients. Seventeen patients received emergency chemotherapy during their ICU stay. ICU, hospital, 3- and 6-month mortality were, respectively, 47, 60, 67 and 71%. Hospital mortality was 60% when invasive MV was used alone, 71% when MV and vasopressors were needed and 83% when MV, vasopressors and hemodialysis were required. In multivariate analysis, hospital mortality was associated with metastatic disease (OR 4.22 [1.4-12.4]; p = 0.008), need for invasive MV (OR 4.20 [1.11-16.2]; p = 0.030), while chemotherapy in ICU was associated with survival (OR 0.23, [0.07-0.81]; p = 0.020). CONCLUSION: This study shows that ICU management can be appropriate for selected newly diagnosed patients with advanced lung cancer, and chemotherapy might improve outcome for patients with SCLC admitted for cancer-related complications. Nevertheless, tumors' characteristics, numbers and types of organ dysfunction should be taken into account in the decisional process before admitting these patients in ICU.Peer reviewe